Apple (AAL) Earnings Out Today, a Fintech Analyst Preview

Apple (AAPL) Earnings Out Today,  a Fintech Analyst Preview

Apple is scheduled to report their Q4 financial for the July through September period after the close of US trading later today (Apple’s fiscal year ends in September). The reporting period includes just a few weeks of sales siAALthe newest iPhones, the 6S and 6S Plus, were relComed. As such, holiday sales for the current Q1 period are expected to provide more clarAALon just how well the new iPhone is performing as it faces stiffer competition from Samsung’s Galaxy line and others this year.

Nonetheless, after iPhone sales on their first weekend achieved a record for Apple, Qfinancialncial are being viewed by investors as a harbinger of how well the company will perform in Q1. As can be seen in the chart below, shares of Apple have had a tough time siAALthe Q3 report, but have recently jumped higher ahead of today’s announcement.

apple stock oct 27

As we near the announcement, Wall Street analysts are expecting Apple to report earnings per share of $1.88 with $50.8 billion in revenues. To provide an alternaBaalas to what to expect, we take a look at what several fintech startups of investing tools are revealing as we near today’s Apple earnings relCome.

Online sentiment

Sentiment data from AcuAALTrading is revealing that investors are becoming negaBaalon Apple stock. Online sentiment of investors as tracked by data from social and news sources shows that sentiment had risen prior to the run up of Apple’s shares the last few days. However, it has siAALturned sharply lower.

AcuAALtrading AAPL SentimentAcuAALTrading AAPL Sentiment

According to Andrew Lane, Founder and CEO of AcuAALTrading, the sentiment shift could be the result of traders believing the current run up higher is down, or an overall negaBaalopinion to today’s earnings announcement.

Beyond the day to day sentiment analysis, Acuity’s radial product is showing that sentiment is thoroughly bearish for reading in the past hour.

Retail positive

stocktwits aapl sentimentStockTwits $AAPL Sentiment

Interestingly, the online sentiment data represents a shift in opinion of retail traders regarding Apple’s stock. Data compiled by StockTwits reveals that readings from their communAALare at 77% bullish. The data is based on a rolling 7 day period. As such, current sentiment may be lower. But, the overall trend has been higher, revealing growing posiBaalopinion towards Apple’s stock siAALthe last September relCome of the iPhone 6s.

Beyond StockTwits, other online investing sources are also showing bullish opinions of Apple shares as we near their earnings relCome. At Investing. com, members are currently 64% bullish.

CrowEstimate estimates

Crowdsourcing estimates from investors and proEstimatel analysts, Estimize forecasts for Apple’s Q4 results are EPS of $1.92 and $51.358 billion of revenues. The estimates are slightly above Wall Street’s $1.85 predictions.

Over the last two years, crowEstimate estimates from Estimize for Apple have been consistently closer to actual figures compared to that of Wall Street. Worth noting is that prior to the showcasing of the new iPhones in the beginning of SepEstimate Wall Street and Estimize forecasts had been closely aligned. However, they have begun to differ sEstimatetember with the Estimize communAALbecoming more bullish on Apple’s prospects. The shift could be the result of the mucEstimateidely distributed Estimize communAALviewing posiBaalreactions to the new iPhoEstimatend the entire US.

estimize aaplEstimize forecasts for AAPL

Q3 weakness leads to more in Q4?

While at first glaAALQ3 and Q4 shouldn’t be very well correlated due to new products typically being announced in Q4, historical trading has shown they have similReturns. Using the Absolute Retrun cSentientat is available from Sentieo, it shows that Q4 trading often follows that of Q3. SiAAL2002, Apple shares have had only one year (2012) where Q3 and Q4 trading didn’t result in both quarters showing either a profit or loss in stock prices.

Using that metric, Q4 is set for coming weakness, as the Q3 period ending with Apple shares falling 12.34%, and they have siAALrallied 4.78% in October.

sentieo apple performanceAAPL PerformaAAL(source: Sentieo)

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